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I cannot confirm or deny that Mr. Mystery is a total micro-business stud.  He may or may not be a veritable Jack Bauer of starting little companies and making tons of cash.  He’s asked me to maintain his privacy, so I can only say that he’s been my longest and most-trusted advisor since I was a young dude.  His name may or may not rhyme with Shwarren Shmuffet. 

This guy has (according to documents acquired through the Freedom of Information Act) spent many years in corporate America – including upper executive positions with WalMart, Target and Toys-R-Us.  He’s developed a crazy-successful iPhone app.  He’s made tons of dough in internet marketing.  And, he still launches one internet micro-business after another – even though he’s already made tons of money with stuff that’s gone “macro.”

In short, he’s a true Micro-business Fanatic; the highest honor I can bestow.  Check out his pearls of wisdom.  I cannot neither confirm nor deny that he’s reading the future correctly.


First of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness

This idea seems like a natural.  Hunting, fishing, kayaking etc. in paradise. Who wouldn't want to do that?

But, I have several questions:  who is currently providing these services on Lanai?  What is Steve's specific niche or need that he is filling in the market place?  It seems that people would be willing to pay for guides.  

I would think that word of mouth on the Island would be critical.  Does the world of Lanai know that he has started this business?  This could be his biggest marketing effort;  the concierge at the main hotel  may become his most important new best friend.

What are Steve's goals and timeline to accomplish the goals and expected outcomes?  There is a sense that there is not a lot of urgency to quickly try and fail several times to secure a second income.  It Steve were to established clear goals like, "Next week I will have a website that will allow me to schedule guiding times." Or, "Next month I'll guide for $1000 worth of time and make $500 from the B&B" he'd have a much better chance of success. 

If Steve were that specific, I would  feel a lot more warm and fuzzy.  Goals help us decide whether not we are succeeding of failing.  Remember, the key to success is to fail fast and often.  You've got to know if you are failing and you need to know quickly.

Bottom Line:  This idea will fail to generate more than $2000 revenue by April 15th unless Steve sets clear, specific and public goals as to his bookings, revenues, sales and profits.  If Steve sets those goals, then I predict that he will generate more than $2000 in revenues by April 15th.

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Second of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness

I would like to understand the potential in a project like the B&B.   How much is that expected to bring in this year?  What is its potential income.  (number of rooms x price x days available)

If he is currently guiding what does he charge?  When is he available, (knowing he has a full time job?)   Does he have others able and willing to guide for him? How many potential guiding hours does he have in a year?

A good idea is not enough.  You have to see clearly how the money is made. 
My sense from the interview is that Steve maybe too "safe" in his job.  He hasn't burned the bridges behind him and he didn't convince me he wants it bad enough.  If he can't convince me, how will he convince his customers?

Bottom Line:  Steve's going to need to quit his job in order to meet his goal of $10,000 in profits by May 15th.  If Steve quits his job, then I predict he will achieve at least $6000 in profits by May 15th, counting deposits.  If Steve doesn't quit his job, I predict he'll earn less than $6000 in profits by May 15th.

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Third of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness

If it lives, how soon will it make $10,000 in profit? I think this all depends on Steve's level of humility.   How quickly does he want to learn the lessons that will create a successful business?  How much can his ego take?  Is he willing to try lots of stuff and fail miserably at most of it?

With summer coming on Steve could make $10,000 in 95 days from Feb 1, 2010 (May 5th) if he loads up his weekends.  

If he fumbles around and doesn't set big hairy audacious goals,  he'll be like most people who can only speak of the big fish (business idea) that got away.   Come on Steve $10,000 by May 5th!  Take it on!

Bottom Line:  If Steve sets clear, audacious goals, quits his job and tries more than 15 distinct marketing campaigns, I predict that he'll make the $10,000 in profit by May 5th.

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