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Obviously, Pamela's my wife.  It goes without saying that I think she's pretty hot-shizzle.

In addition to her hotness, though, I have long experience with her razor-sharp business acumen.  She's done plenty of micro-business herself: she built a mid-six-figure hospitality consulting firm, she founded a peppy, little bed and breakfast and she has long experience in executive leadership.  But what matters is that she consistently gives damn good business advice.  This is a girl with a penetrating intellect and a willingness to shoot straight.

She claims to have sacrificed a bunch of brain cells during her recent pregnancy, but new-mommy-hood hasn't dulled her edge at all, as far as I can tell.  Let's see how she does at reading the future.


Pamela Orvis 1st Prediction

First of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness 1

I think Steve and Jane will radically adjust their product, pricing and marketing message over the next 90 days before landing on their final product offerings, pricing and marketing message at the end of May.

A quick online search for Steve's "island adventure fitness" website brought up 790,000 results on Google. It looks like there's a lot of competition for the consumers' dollar in the island adventure category. And according to Plunkett Research, Ltd, the big dog in travel trend research, "the 2010 period finds the travel industry continuing to face challenging times. Consumers' budgets are tight, and they are cutting down on unnecessary expenses. When the middle class does take a vacation, it is on a reduced budget."

Times are tough and I'd have to bet against speedy success.

Bottom line:  I predict that Steve will fail to reach $10K in profits by August 15th, 2010.

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Pamela Orvis 2nd Prediction

Second of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness

I think it likely that Steve and Jane will end up offering a budget-oriented Lana'i experience with basic lodging, transportation and a few "pay to play" island activities and will shy away from the extensive activities and organic foods. I don't think they can reach the narrow market that would be interested in a get-fit, high price vacation. With women being the key decision makers in 70% of travel plans, I'm not sure Island Adventure Fitness' current offerings will stand out in a crowded market or have the right mix of adventure, pampering, luxe accommodations or tantalizing food.

Instead, I see IAF trimming back their offerings and focusing on a shoe-string budget Lana'i experience that boasts a local's "must see" and "must do" secrets.

In other words, they will offer a value oriented B & B product (assuming local laws will allow that) and begin marketing that predominately by May 1, 2010.

Bottom line:  I predict that Steve will shift his offering away from the committed seven-day adventure, he'll move to a shorter-stay adventure-lite, and he'll be forced to do it before May 1st, 2010.

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Pamela Orvis 3rd Prediction

Third of Three Predictions about Island Adventure Fitness

Out of necessity, and in the pursuit of low hanging fruit, I believe that Island Adventure Fitness will begin to offer day activity excursions on Lanai to people vacationing on Lana'i and Maui and that this will be the source of their first revenue by April 15th. These mini "Lana'i Adventures" could package biking and kayaking trips, snorkeling and "Catch of the day Fish Fries," champagne sunrise hikes along the Munroe Trail and the like for full or half day adventures to folks that are already on the island or nearby Maui.

This will force Steve to get the word out and forge relationships with local hotels, Bed and Breakfasts, restaurants and gift shops and to basically talk it up where ever he goes.

Bottom line:  I predict Steve will see his first REVENUE from day excursions coming from Maui visitors and that this will kick in by April 15th.

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